Bill still in draft stage, but late-year passage is possible.

Some believe bill may be passed in Nov., Dec. 2010.

July 1, 2010

This is likely the last update you will see on this site for a while. Ohio Retirement Study Council (ORSC) staff advised yesterday that the bill will likely remain in the drafting stage, with the Legislative Service Commission and OPERS continuing to work on the language, through about the end of the summer. So there won't be much to tell until that work is done.

Nonetheless, some believe there is a realistic chance of passage before the end of the year. If you want to let your Ohio Representative and Ohio Senator know what you think of the proposed pension changes, it's not too early.

Political insiders differ in their opinions about the legislation's future. Some believe that it would be difficult for the bill, which as yet has not even been introduced in the General Assembly, to pass before the end of the year. Under this view, it would need to be reintroduced when the legislature convenes again in 2011.

But with the November elections looming, others believe there's actually a more substantial chance of passage before the end of 2010.

The thinking goes this way: since reform of Ohio's public pensions could become a hot-button issue, it may be politically safest for legislators to take it up during the "lame duck" legislative session that follows the November elections. Some legislators will have lost their seats, leaving them little to lose by voting however they choose. Newly-elected legislators will not take their seats until 2011, so they naturally won't be responsible for their predecessors' actions. And those incumbents retaining their seats will have almost two years before the next election for any angry constituents to get over the worst of their dismay.

The possibility of lame-duck passage rests on two big assumptions:

• that Democrats and Republicans would largely agree on the need for action (which itself is not certain), and
• that a draft bill will be ready to introduce in time to be acted upon in 2010.

By contrast, the alternative to lame-duck passage would be consideration of the bill before the election, or in the new General Assembly. Free from the time pressure of the impending end of the legislative session, the media and the public would have more leisure to consider and react to the progress of the bill. In short, it could make passage of the bill more politically problematic if the public has more time to digest (and object to) the details as they evolve. Like the federal health care law (on which I take no position here, thank you), the longer the bill is a work in progress, the more  divisive and politically difficult it might become. If it can be addressed in the last two months of this year, it could reduce the chance of political polarization, and the attendant no-win scenario for some legislators.

Let me be clear: I am not suggesting that anyone is engineering a lame-duck scenario. And if it does happen, it would not mean that it was brought about by any improper motive.

But the very possibility does suggest that it is not too early to contact your legislative representatives and the Governor's office with your views. Go to http://ohio.gov/government/, and look under the "How do I..." section for "Find my legislator" and "Contact an elected leader." There you can find information on who represents you in the Ohio House and Ohio Senate, and how to reach them and the Governor.

Some observers had hoped we'd be able to comment on specific legislative language. That's not yet possible (a fact, I believe, that is no one's fault). And if the pension reform bill isn't taken up this year, you may need to do this all over again later. That's the nature of the legislative process—you never know how things will go. But with some realistic chance of passage before the end of the year, campaign season may be the very best time to let your Ohio Representative, your Ohio Senator, and the Governor know what you think of the proposed changes to your pension.